| IRAN: EU or US. Who will be the first? |
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A Domino of Instability
One of the centers of gravity and the main challenge to international security and stability are currently to be located in the area of the Greater Middle East. The region is laden with most sensitive geopolitical issues of the present international landscape: the continuing Israeli – Palestinian conflict, an Iraqi state with a still fragile inter-sectarian and inter-ethnic balance of power, the endless political and territorial disputes between Hamas and Israel, a weak Lebanon state structure unable to project rule of law mechanisms on the whole sovereign territory, a growing Taliban insurgency that routinely challenges the ability of Kabul to control and stabilize Afghanistan and also the capacity of Pakistan to ensure its stability and sovereignty, a.o. In an effort to curtail the emerging threats in the region - effort undertaken by both the Euro-Atlantic community and major stakeholders such as US, Russia and China - a new approach is being considered in relation to Iran which is a key player in terms of the geopolitical leverage in the areas of the Greater Middle East, Caspian Sea and generally in Asia. While designated for the past eight years as one of these very threats to international stability and security, Iran needs now to be seen as an important part of the solution. No other political actor is better equipped than Iran to exert such a geopolitical influence, in
the context of asymmetrical disputes, over non-state actors such as Hamas or Hezbollah.
Quite few have the ability to influence the future choices of the Iraqi Shia community better
than Iran, which may in this perspective hold the key to the internal stability of the Iraqi
state. And the importance of Iran for the efforts to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan can
hardly be overestimated.
Nevertheless, in addition to significant opportunities, there are also crucial challenges: are the European Union, United States and also Russia and China able to design inclusive
regional security architecture around Iran and not against it? Are the European Union and
the United States able to create a regional security community able to overcome the hate
and the fear between Israel, the Gulf States and Iran? Is the Euro-Atlantic community to coopt
Iran as a responsible stakeholder in order to channel its huge geopolitical leverage for a
greater good - the stability of the Middle East?
Pushing the Reset Button in the Relationship with Teheran A new chapter began in the Middle East in January 2009 as the Obama Administration came into office in Washington. The turnabout translates in a policy which favors diplomacy
over military means while signaling the time of dialogue and multilateral cooperation. Put
into perspective, the logic of “learning together” is now taking over the logic of “lecturing”.
With the Obama Administration in Washington and a revival of the transatlantic partnership
with Brussels, pressing the reset button in the Euro-Atlantic community’s relationship with
Teheran is the proposed course of action. The new policy that is to prevail, based on
cooperation and understanding of the fundamental interests of all parties, will try to
abandon labeling Iran as hostile and set itself on the course of meaningful diplomatic
engagement and gradual détente. In the new relationship, parties will learn together the
logic of accommodation: we will compromise, we will be flexible, we will give and take, and
we will work on balanced positions.
At the latest NATO Summit, the members of this alliance came forward with a strong message signaling willingness to trade the project of missile defense over an altering in
Teheran’s nuclear policies. In the long term, the Euro-Atlantic priority should be that of
supporting the gradual emergence of an inclusive and cooperative security architecture in
the Greater Middle East, able, on the one hand, to provide security assurances and, on the
other hand, to hold in check the regional security dilemmas and fears.
A Emerging Win-Win Solution In crafting a policy of engagement towards Iran, the stakes are high for both the Euro- Atlantic community and Iran itself. In a comparative perspective, there are several
arguments that suggest that the engagement endeavor is mutually advantageous.
Integrating Iran in the system as a responsible stakeholder also creates the premises for
welfare in the Iranian state. This argument is especially valid in the context of the current
financial crisis that generated a contraction in energy demand, thus putting considerable
strain on the Iranian economy. This downturn can be countered by taking advantage of the
diverse opportunities present on the Western markets, which would enable Iran to deal with
the malaise in the country’s finances (e.g. unbalanced government budget, high inflation
rate).
The possibility for the Iranian capital to flow freely towards desired investment areas around the world will go hand in hand with the diversification of Iranian industry, trade and overall
infrastructure, as a result of an influx of foreign capital, in the perspective of eliminating
export controls and economic sanctions and making the best use of the potential of Iranian
networks.
The huge pool of young, educated people in Iran is affected by both unemployment and underemployment, phenomena with dramatic economic and social consequences,
potentially fostering the drive towards radical Islamism. The economic development of the
Iranian state as a result of the country’s opening up towards Europe and America can result
in a substantial increase of the living standards of the Iranian people.
For both the European Union and the United States, the essence of cooperation with Iran transcends the question of energy supply and security. Engaging Iran means obtaining
positional advantage in some of the most pressing geopolitical conundrums that the West is
currently facing: the settlement of the Middle East conflict, the stabilization in Iraq and the
cessation of war in Afghanistan, a.o.
Pressing Time for Change. When, How and with Whom? As strongly advertised by Washington, with echoes from Brussels, the time for changing perspective on Iran has arrived.
There is no better time to initiate change and come up with a new beginning in the
relationship with Iran than now. The present moment may be interpreted as significantly
ripe for such an undertaking to the extent that it is necessary to use the momentum
generated in the Euro-Atlantic community by the new, multilateralist approach. The
unprecedented possibility that the European Union and the United States attempt together
at opening dialogue with Iran after three decades of latter’s isolation provides a strategic
window of opportunity. The seminal question is whether the two Euro-Atlantic actors will
choose to engage Iran together and, in case of an answer in the negative, which of them,
and with what consequences, will take the lead.
How to open up a dialogue with Iran is tantamount to making known all the benefits of such an act both to Iran and to all the major stakeholders in the Greater Middle East. In this
respect, one of the aspects to be underlined is that bringing back Iran into the system and
transforming it into a responsible stakeholder does not amount to driving other actors, such
as Russia and China, away from the system. The importance of security initiatives such as
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to which Iran applied for full membership, is one of
the key dimensions in finding the right approach to Iran.
With whom can the Euro-Atlantic community proceed in engaging Iran is a question addressed to all the states in the Middle East. An answer is to be expected first and
foremost from the Gulf States, one of the vertices of the security triangle Iran – Gulf States
– Israel. In the perspective of a policy shift as regards Iran, the Gulf States must come up
with a swift and determined answer (i.e. rally, in operational terms, behind the Euro-Atlantic
effort) in order to make sure that they will be included in any future security architecture to
be defined in the area.
Obviously, any arrangement in the region must guarantee the right to existence and security of the Israeli State as well as of an independent Palestinian State.
Meanwhile the question arises: IRAN – European Union or IRAN - United States? Who will
be the first? If the European Union plays first, there will also be enough room for the US,
but it is not so clear how much room will remain for the EU if the United States play first …
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